By: Saneliso Mlambo
South Africans are already looking towards the next election. Political parties are planning campaigns, analysts are studying polling trends and coalition arithmetic dominates political discussion.
But while the country is focused on who will win the next election, a far bigger political event is quietly approaching.
It won’t be decided by voters. It won’t be announced by the Electoral Commission.
And its consequences could reshape South African politics more profoundly than any election result.
The next political earthquake will be succession.
Every dominant political leader eventually leaves the stage. Some retire. Some lose influence. Others are forced out by time itself. The question is never whether that day will come. The question is whether the organisation they built can survive without them.
History suggests many cannot.
The UDM has remained inseparable from Bantu Holomisa.
COPE’s promise evaporated after its founders turned on one another.
The PAC spent decades weakened by leadership battles and internal divisions.
Even the Inkatha Freedom Party has had to redefine itself after the passing of Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi. Under Velenkosini Hlabisa, the IFP remains an important political force, but few would argue that it commands the same singular influence it enjoyed under its founder. Replacing a leader is one thing. Replacing a political icon is something entirely different.
That brings South Africa to the two parties facing the country’s biggest succession test.
MK and the EFF.
Although they differ ideologically, their origins share striking similarities.
The EFF emerged after Julius Malema’s expulsion from the ANC in 2012. MK emerged after Jacob Zuma’s dramatic break with the ANC. Both parties were born from profound political ruptures within the governing party.
Supporters see them as alternatives to an ANC that had lost its way.
Critics argue they were vehicles through which two influential leaders continued their political battles after leaving the ANC.
Whichever view one accepts, one fact is difficult to dispute.
Neither party would exist in its current form without its founder.
That is both their greatest strength and their greatest vulnerability.
Jacob Zuma transformed MK into KwaZulu-Natal’s largest political party within months of its formation. Julius Malema built the EFF from the ground up into one of South Africa’s most recognisable opposition parties.
Both achievements are extraordinary.
But charismatic leadership and institutional longevity are not the same thing.
Political history is filled with parties that won elections, dominated headlines and inspired fierce loyalty, only to fade because they never evolved beyond the people who created them.
Ironically, the ANC and the DA, two parties often criticised by their opponents, may offer the strongest lesson in political survival.
The ANC survived Oliver Tambo, it survived Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma.
The Democratic Alliance survived Tony Leon, Helen Zille’s first leadership tenure, Mmusi Maimane’s departure and multiple internal leadership contests. Through each transition, the organisation continued because its structures proved larger than the personalities leading them.
That institutional resilience may become their greatest long-term advantage.
The ANC and the DA certainly have their own crises. They have faced electoral setbacks, internal divisions and public criticism. Yet both have repeatedly demonstrated that leadership can change without threatening the existence of the organisation itself.
MK and the EFF have not yet faced that moment. Neither has had to convince supporters that the party is bigger than its founder.
That test is still coming. Not because political opponents wish for it, but because no leader remains at the centre of politics forever.
The future of both parties will ultimately depend on whether they have built institutions or simply inspired loyalty to extraordinary individuals.
Winning elections creates political power. Building institutions creates political longevity, those are not the same achievement.
Twenty years from now, South Africans may not remember who delivered the loudest speeches, held the biggest rallies or dominated social media.
They will remember which political movements survived the departure of the leaders who made them famous.
Because the defining battle in South African politics has never simply been ANC versus MK or ANC versus the EFF.
It has always been something much deeper. The battle between institutions and personalities.
History has usually declared the same winner. Institutions endure. Personalities, no matter how influential, eventually become part of history.